Is the watch market imploding...luxury watches that are going over retail plummeting in price? There definitely seems to be some evidence right now that certain models are heading in that direction! --------------------------
On this video, we're gonna be going over the current state of the watch market, being that it's the Summer of 2019.
So right now it's official, I feel like all these watches that were really high in the market have officially peaked and are starting to go down.
Has the bubble blown up? I don't think so, but I think it's definitely deflating a little bit.
We just saw prices on Pateks 5980s and the 5711s drop ten to twenty thousand dollars in the process of two weeks. I knew that was coming.
The prices were just too high and they were unsustainable. Pretty much how was something worth something if no one's buying it? In reality, I didn't see a single private pay the premium of $180,000 or $200,000 for a 5980 rose.
So pretty much it was just dealers asking that price. So it's official, prices are starting to simmer down and in the summer is when prices go down the most.
We're gonna have to wait and see what happens.
So what is the problem with the market right now? Well, I feel like there's been an over-saturation of dealers buying these watches a little bit too expensive and holding them and asking too much of a premium out of speculation that the consumers are gonna buy it.
I can't tell you how many times I quoted a guy for a 5980 $150,000 knowing I couldn't even buy one and not one person asked me what was the condition, what were the years of the papers, was it new or unworn. Nobody even asked me if I had it in stock. Everybody just ran.
So we'll have to see what happens. I mean, I think that 140 even up to 150 is sustainable on a 5980, but I feel like the market has changed.
Maybe Asia is not buying as much or maybe people just are not willing to pay that much for the watches. Another good example is Rolex.
In my previous video, I was stating how the Batman was as high as $22,0000. That's just stupid.
For $22,000 you could probably buy a much more attractive watch than a Batman on a jubilee.
The crazy part is is that now Rolex is shipping them to all the ADs. So now we got these fly-by-night watch dealers which are really just privates putting them on a credit card and floating it for a month seeing if maybe us dealers buy them. I just don't see the end consumer paying the high premiums for that Batman, so those are also going down a little bit.
It's a very turmoil moment right now in the Summer of 2019 for these over-inflated watches. One thing that I wanna mention is that not every single watch is being affected by this right now.
For example, the Yacht-Master in yellow gold has been a little bit difficult to get lately, but the prices have been increased only about two to three g's. You see these watches that are commonly been selling at the same price or gone up a little bit are not being affected.
The ones that I see the challenges with are these that are going double retail, way over retail with all this hype and inflation. Those are the ones that right now I see them very rocky in the market.
Two months ago I would have probably maybe paid over 15 to 16 thousand dollars for a Batman jubilee to stock it. Right now, I don't even want to buy one. I don't know what's gonna happen with that watch. I'm afraid that tomorrow Rolex is gonna release 100,000 of them real easily, really quick. It's gonna bring down the value of them and I don't wanna get stuck with one in inventory.
Most of the models of the AP has seen a very consistent amount of gains in the market that are sustainable. For example, the self-winding 41mm is a bit elevated, but I don't see that plummeting any time soon.
So I feel like for right now the AP models are pretty safe with this whole thing. However, Patek and very particular Rolex models are in danger in my opinion.
Richard Mille, on the other hand, I'm not sure what's gonna happen. You know, they haven't really been selling and it has not been easy to move them or even buy one if you're a consumer, but we'll have to wait and see.
The market right now is shifting and a good time to really know where this is gonna go is gonna be late to early November, is when we're gonna get a better idea of what's gonna happen with those models.
The question is, will they rise again?
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